After a disappointing first quarter, economists widely predicted that recovery in United States would gain strength as soon as U.S.A. get over the short-term difficulties, such as rising gas prices, bad weather and supply problems in Japan. But there are few signs of that happening. Production is stopping, housing market is still in the doldrums and consumers have not lost their fear of spending. This means that it is possible that the way that U.S. economy has to take until full recovery is much longer and slower than expected.

"It's very difficult to get a quick recovery when traditionally, quick recoveries were often driven by real estate and consumers," said Nigel Gault, economist at IHS Global Insight. He estimates that growth would stall at an annualized rate in real terms less than 3% in coming quarters, better than the rate of 1.8% in the first three months, but still too weak to offset unemployment.

Many more experts are revising downward their growth forecasts for the second quarter. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut there estimate of 3% to 2.5%, while Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut its from 2.8% to 2%. Deutsche Bank has lowered its forecast from 3.7% to 3.2%.

Companies also are wary. Applied Materials Inc., the largest manufacturer of machines used in the production of computer chips, said after recording one of its best quarters, anticipates a slowdown in the semiconductor and solar markets. Hewlett-Packard Co. cut its outlook for fiscal year due to poor sales of computers and the disaster effects in Japan. Clorox Co. offered a more guarded prognosis for consumer business and home care, as the executives concluded that higher prices would probably affect sales.

Plight
 
This difficult environment makes a more complex question about the American economy health: Has U.S.A. emerged from the crisis of 2008 and 2009 with a chronic problem of growth? Some economists believe so.
 "We expect that the economy perform in accordance with rules that are very difficult to achieve when it has a private and public debt so big," said Carmen Reinhart, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Reinhart believes the growth prospects of the U.S. Federal Reserve have been too optimistic and the country could expect a prolonged period of poor growth and high unemployment.

In the April forecast, FED officials projected that the economy would grow at an annualized rate in real terms of between 3.1% and 3.3% in 2011 and between 3.5% and 4.2% in 2012. This exceeds the expectations of independent economists, on average, predicted a rate of 2.9% for 2011 and 3.1% in 2012, according to Blue Chip Economics, which survey economists every month.

Even if the temporary difficulties subside, the economy could face problems as the Fed is going minimizing stimulus efforts, state and local governments cut spending to balance their budgets, and Congress tries to save on tax expenditures next year.

Employment
Employment growth has been relatively sustainable in recent months and expansion in emerging markets helps to buoy domestic demand. Even so, economists believe will require a strong and sustained improvement in the employment situation for households spend freely again.

Judy Sheppers, 70 years old, has no doubt that the economy is improving: she just got a job in a real estate office after being fired in 2008, and now she can indulge as lunches or dinners in restaurants. But she still restrict in substantial costs.

"I will love to travel," said Sheppers, but holidays do not fit into her budget. Instead, she and some friends are planning trips to nearby beaches.

Meanwhile, with the prices drop and poor sales in the housing market, both builders and buyers are under pressure.

The optimism of Victor DePhillips is declining. The chief executive of Signature Building Systems, which makes prefabricated houses and employs about 165 workers, says the number of orders has dropped in recent weeks. Even if the situation is not as black as when the crisis reached its peak, it seems that potential buyers are holding back, possibly because of fear or maybe they think prices could drop further, DePhillips said.

Since the recession officially ended in mid 2009, the annualized growth rate has averaged 2.8%.

That's not better than his performance after the recession of 2001 and much worse than the 7.1% after the recession of almost the same magnitude of 1982.

These perspectives facing against the growth could become a priority for the Fed in the coming weeks.